What kind of challenges do European Union Member States face and under what conditions does it appear likely that they will be able to phase out fossil fuels? A case study of the small European Union Member State of Cyprus.
Recent reports such as the recent IPCC reports have been clear about the path that the world must soon follow if climate targets are to be met. The Paris Agreement has set targets of keeping average global temperatures below 1.5°C or with the current trends, below 2°C. The recent European Green Deal is supplementary to the Paris Agreement and aims to transform the European Union into a climate neutral continent by 2050. However, recent geopolitical events in Eastern Europe, have seen a crisis withing the European Union and has shown that Member States are still heavily reliant on fossil fuels when they have been already facilitating a phase out. This has created a crisis, not only withing the European Union, but outside of it as well, raising several questions regarding why Member States are slow in their transition away from fossil fuels. Each Member State faces its own challenges and has its own capabilities to facilitate a phase out. Different types of carbon lock-in, path dependency, and the fear of stranded assets and resources create multiple challenges for Member States and makes it harder for them to move away from fossil fuels. The case study of Cyprus demonstrates this slow transition as the island currently aims to reduce its emissions by 21% by 2030, however, only had a share of 12.04% of renewable energy generation in 2020. This is due to a deep carbon lock-in that exists in multiple sectors and scales of the country and efforts to unlock have been made to a small scale. However, the challenges that the island faces in transitioning are not uncommon for Member States who are an island or include islands in their jurisdiction. Different capabilities play a key role in transitioning and the support and guidance of the EU is key to helping EU Member States of different capabilities to transition away from fossil fuels.