Policy Briefs

1

Fossil Fuel: Why Leave Fossil Fuel Underground (LFFU) and How Much Should be Left Underground?

Key Messages:

  1. Addressing climate change requires leaving fossil fuels underground (LFFU)
  2. Market mechanisms will not autonomously displace fossil fuel
  3. Investing in renewables will not automatically replace fossil fuel
  4. Overshoot politics delays LFFU exacerbating impacts
  5. Net zero politics delays LFFU exacerbating impacts

Read Policy Brief 1 »

2

Investing in Renewables Does Not Automatically Replace Fossil Fuels

Key Messages:

  1. Data shows that renewable energy increases in the energy mix but does not replace fossil fuels (FF)
  2. For developing countries, the energy addition is inevitable, but does not need to come from FF
  3. Big banks continue to heavily invest in FF compared to Renewable Energy Sources (RES)
  4. Investments in RES by FF companies compared to their FF investments are a drop in the ocean
  5. A focused policy on phasing out fossil fuel is needed

Read Policy Brief 2 »

3

Net-Zero Targets Will Enable Continued Fossil Fuel Use

Key Messages:

  1. Science-based net-zero targets require a rapid fossil fuel phaseout
  2. Many net-zero targets rely on offsetting emissions instead of phasing out fossil fuel
  3. Fossil fuel companies are setting net-zero targets which rely on unproven negative emission technologies 
  4. The financial sector continues to finance new fossil fuel projects despite adopting net-zero targets
  5. National governments are adopting net-zero targets while expanding fossil fuel production

Read Policy Brief 3 »

4

Climate Injustices Have Multiplied: Implications for Fossil Fuel

Key Messages:

  1. Climate injustices have multiplied over time 
  2. Climate objective delayed, delaying fossil fuel phase out 
  3. Delay shrinks carbon budget, cannot be easily shared 
  4. Stranded assets not accounted for 
  5. Mitigation focuses on efficiency, reducing opportunities for systemic change 
  6. Adaptation costs paid mostly by victims 
  7. Symptomatic approach: Driving systemic factors ignored 

Read Policy Brief 4 »

5

Towards Climate System Justice

Key Messages:

  1. Without climate justice, the climate problem cannot be solved
  2. Justice conceptualized includes transformative, recognition and epistemic justice; interspecies, intergenerational and intragenerational justice; procedural; and substantive justice
  3. Justice operationalized includes just ends (just boundaries and foundations) and just means (just transformation)

Read Policy Brief 5 »

6

Why 1ºC Is More Just Than 1.5ºC

Key Messages:

  1. What is ‘dangerous’ climate change depends on who decides what it is and for whom.
  2. Science has for long promoted 2ºC as a safe target.
  3. Decisions on the long-term objectives of the climate regime have been postponed politically till 2015 and 1.5ºC was introduced by small island states.
  4. New research sees 1.5ºC as reducing considering harm and triggering four tipping points.
  5. But even at 1ºC, there is huge damage to species and ecosystems.
  6. Even at 1ºC, there is huge damage to humans and nations.

Read Policy Brief 6 »

7

A Just World on a Safe Planet: Earth System Thresholds, Foundations and Transformations

Key Messages:

  1. Science-based net-zero targets require a rapid fossil fuel phaseout
  2. Many net-zero targets rely on offsetting emissions instead of phasing out fossil fuel
  3. Fossil fuel companies are setting net-zero targets which rely on unproven negative emission technologies 
  4. The financial sector continues to finance new fossil fuel projects despite adopting net-zero targets
  5. National governments are adopting net-zero targets while expanding fossil fuel production

Read Policy Brief 7 »

8

Conceptualizing North-South in Climate Politics

Key Messages:

  1. Climate governance history reveals cumulative North-South injustices
  2. North-South dichotomy is flexible and relational: Global North vs. Global South, Norths within the South, and Souths within the North
  3. Persistent historical inequalities and structural power imbalances shape climate responsibilities, decision-making, climate finance and access to resources
  4. Policies that account for relational and tripartite North-South can strengthen equity and justice in climate governance.

Read Policy Brief 8 »

9

Lessons From Case Studies in the Global North

Key Messages:

  1. Major economies continue to invest in new fossil fuel projects using new frames
  2. Embedded dependencies “lock-in” fossil fuel
  3. Smaller, peripheral economies face lock-ins similar to developing countries
  4. Divestment shifts vested interests and makes the industry less transparent

Read Policy Brief 9 »

10

Lessons From The Netherlands

Key Messages:

  1. Politics has delayed decision-making creating uncertainty
  2. Politics has emphasized market mechanisms, energy security and competitiveness
  3. Politics subsidizes fossil fuel, while subsidies for RES mostly go to the rich
  4. Large actors such as ports and airports are not proactive
  5. Emissions going down slowly, and are affected by military and AI emissions

Read Policy Brief 10 »

11

Rising Military Expenditure Increases Fossil Fuel Use

Key Messages:

  1. Military use of fossil fuels is substantial
  2. New NATO norm increases likelihood of doubling emissions
  3. Climate security and military security (readiness) should be integrated
  4. Reform funding mechanisms to be a decarbonization multiplier
  5. Mandate minimum quotas for sustainability investments
  6. Design fossil fuel exit scenario
  7. Embed climate security and energy autonomy in defence strategy

Read Policy Brief 11 »

12

Lessons From Case Studies in the Global South

Key Messages:

  1. Energy justice/security and right to development influence LFFU
  2. Potential job losses hamper LFFU; just transition elusive
  3. Financial dependence & low diversification hampers LFFU
  4. Corruption and cronyism hampers LFFU
  5. Debt and dumping challenges LFFU
  6. Colonialism, Capitalism, Patriarchy hampers LFFU

Read Policy Brief 12 »

13

Lessons from Latin America

Key Messages:

  1. Competing energy coalitions are mediated by the state
  2. Counter-hegemonic coalitions promote counter-narratives
  3. Policy instruments can potentially LFFU

Read Policy Brief 13 »

14

Fossil Fuel (FF) Businesses Hamper Phaseout By Managing the 'Narrative'

Key Messages:

  1. Fossil fuel (FF) companies have spread doubt about climate change science
  2. FF companies have lobbied governments to slow down decisions on a FF phase out
  3. FF companies promote ‘necessitarianism’ to distract attention from their role in causing climate change
  4. FF companies are ‘green washing’ their strategies
  5. FF companies support techno-optimism to enable net zero goals
  6. FF companies indulge in strategic blame placement to avoid accountability

Read Policy Brief 14 »

15

Vested Interests Flood Social Media With Misinformation, Malinformation, and Disinformation

Key Messages:

  1. Misinformation and disinformation on climate change is growing
  2. Misinformation impacts the willingness of the public to take action
  3. Misinformation and disinformation needs to be countered

Read Policy Brief 15 »

16

Bilateral Investment Treaties Hinder the Fossil Fuel Phaseout

Key Messages:

  1. Bilateral Investment Treaties (BITs) encourage investments in fossil fuels (FF) by protecting such investments.
  2. BITs create a favourable investment climate for foreign investors and protect their rights while the state only has obligations (to protect the investment) and no rights.
  3. Dispute settlement processes under BITs often involve international arbitration which side-lines national courts.
  4. States may lose control over their resources included in the contracts because of the fear of high costs of arbitration and possible compensation awards.
  5. BITs can be inconsistent with the host countries development and FF phase out policies that will become more stringent with future climate change goals.
  6. Most BITs include survival clauses which enables investors to use a terminated BIT to launch international arbitration against a state.

Read Policy Brief 16 »

17

Energy Charter Treaty Hinders Fossil Fuel Phaseout

Key Messages:

  1. The Energy Charter Treaty (1994) negotiated mostly by European countries encourages investments in fossil fuel (FF) by protecting such investments.
  2. ECT protection includes enabling foreign investors to sue states where they operate, in the public and environmental interest, if they decide to phase out FF.
  3. Such protection includes that even after withdrawing from the ECT, countries are still liable for breaches of the ECT for 20 years.
  4. Such protection appears to be stronger than other obligations under EU and public international law. Proposed revisions may not address the above problems.
  5. Inviting developing countries to join the ECT affects them negatively as they have had no influence on the content, not having participated in the negotiations.
  6. Such invitations are based on unverified claims about the potential impact of the ECT on attracting investments, reducing energy prices, and energy poverty for developing countries.

Read Policy Brief 17 »

18

Financial Incoherence

Key Messages:

  1. Little finance is dedicated to closing down fossil fuel infrastructure
  2. Climate finance is overtaken by other investments
  3. Grants declining, loans increasing
  4. Export credit still supports fossil fuel
  5. Investors continue to invest in fossil fuel
  6. Debt exacerbates fossil fuel investment
  7. Tax evasion and avoidance reduce resources for climate action

Read Policy Brief 18 »

19

Climate Finance Morphs From Grants to Loans

Key Messages:

  1. Climate finance needed in the order of USD 6-8 trillion annually
  2. Policy commitment at USD 100B rising to USD 300 billion-1.3 trillion annually in 2035
  3. Finance demands are specified in NDCs and NAPs
  4. Incoherence in demands reflects incoherence in reporting
  5. Finance is moving from grants to loans

Read Policy Brief 19 »

20

Finance: Sovereign External Debt and Fossil Fuel Dependence Co-Produce Carbon Lock-In

Key Messages:

  1. Debt distress is widespread and rising across the Global South
  2. Sovereign external debt intensifies fossil fuel lock-in in many low- and middle-income countries (LMICs)
  3. Global financial structures reinforce indebtedness and fossil fuel dependence
  4. Sovereign external debt servicing drains national budgets and limits diversification
  5. Debt-driven extraction worsens both inequality and fiscal vulnerability and climate risks

Read Policy Brief 20 »

About

The CLIFF project was financed by the European Research Council (ERC) Advanced Grant under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme.

 

Grant agreement: No. 101020082

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J.Gupta@uva.nl

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