Fossil fuels in an evolving energy landscape: leapfrogging development or developing stranded assets?
Climate change is forcing societies to mitigate as well as adapt to its consequences. In 2015, the Paris Agreement was reached. Tied to this notion are nationally determined commitments, whereby tributaries to the Paris Agreement operationalise their mitigation and adaptation plans based on their national needs. Kenya contributes 0.1% of total CO2 emissions worldwide, yet it has over the past decade made significant oil and gas discoveries. This thesis explores how the evolving availability of fossil fuels in Kenya influencess Kenya’s vision for development and an inclusive energy transition towards renewable energies, particularly oil & LNG and what are the implications for North- South relations. The study made use of inclusive development as a theory, whereby concepts such as politics of aspiration, stranded assets, resource curse and middle-income trap were examined. The objective of this research is to analyse the evolving availability of fossil fuel resources in the region, in turn determining its effect on an inclusive energy transition for Kenya and its ramifications in a North-South context. This research employs qualitative data analysis as its main methodological framework, characterised with the use of semi-structured interviews and content analysis of seminal policy documents Fundamentally, Kenya is leapfrogging its peers by deploying its energy grid to renewables (nearly 90%), despite political commitments to develop its oil and mineral resources sector to further garner growth. Therefore, Kenya is at cross-roads between sustainability and profitability, moreover, it is at risk of a potential middle-income trap, while stranded assets pose future liabilities whereas a resource curse was discarded due to the relative size of the fossil fuel resources. Although Kenya has made large discoveries of oil and gas, it is rapidly expanding its renewables. Nevertheless, access and affordability remain the key drivers to Kenya’s energy transition with a ‘least- cost’ approach setting the political agenda. Internationally, these endeavours have direct connotations for geopolitical energy tensions. Africa constitutes a natural partner for future EU-Africa collaboration.