Fossil Fuel Phaseout in the International Climate Regime: A Study on the Willingness to Phase Out Fossil Fuel Production in the Nationally Determined Contributions
Abstract: Despite its critical role in limiting global warming to 1.5°C, fossil fuel phaseout has not been a central focus in international climate policy. The 2015 Paris Agreement does not explicitly address fossil fuel production, yet some Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) reference it to varying degrees. This study examines how NDCs reveal countries’ willingness to phase out fossil fuel production and explores the factors influencing these commitments. Using a mixed-methods approach, this research analyzes 131 second-round NDCs submitted between 2020 and 2022, assessing patterns in fossil fuel references through systemic, geographical, and justice lenses. Findings indicate that only one-third of NDCs mention fossil fuel production, with significant variation in scope and intent. Contrary to common assumptions, fossil fuel production levels, reserves, and imports do not strongly correlate with a country’s willingness to address phaseout. Instead, economic dependency on fossil fuels and international financial and technological support play key roles in shaping commitments. Notably, both developed and developing countries exhibit willingness under different conditions, reflecting opportunities for a just transition. The study highlights that while some countries signal readiness to phase out fossil fuels, the international climate regime has not effectively encouraged such commitments. References to fossil fuel production in NDCs remain inconsistent and largely insufficient for meaningful global action. Strengthening fossil fuel governance within climate negotiations and integrating stronger phaseout incentives into the NDC process are essential next steps. Further research is needed to assess policy mechanisms that can enhance fossil fuel phaseout commitments globally.