Jitske Fransens

Abstract: The national military contributes an estimated 5.5% to global greenhouse gas emissions and is almost entirely fossil-fuel-based, but its emissions reporting is less than transparent. Global military expenditure is rising. In 2024 it was $2718 billion, a new record. Furthermore, for every 1% per capita investment in the military, there is a predicted increase of 0.05% in emissions. This study asks: Under what conditions can military investments contribute to both military decarbonisation and military readiness? This question addresses 2 critical gaps in the literature. 1. Inconsistent military sustainability efforts, and 2. Limited qualitative research. To fill these gaps, the project uses sustainable development theory, fossil-fuel lock-in through path dependence, and the Multi-Level Perspective to explore the tensions between decarbonisation and military readiness, examining how militaries could navigate leaving fossil fuels underground while retaining the military readiness they stand for. The research conducts a literature review, document analysis, global inventory and mapping, and a case study in the Netherlands. The research concludes the following conditions for climate and readiness synergy; a) military investments can feasibly and cost-effectively support both readiness and decarbonisation when they focus on infrastructure or forms of review; b) consistently implementing scalable measures can create strategic advantages and sustainability benefits for Defence; c) effectively managing long-term fuel risks, investments in alternative fuels can bolster readiness without creating dependency; and d) incorporating climate objectives into operational priorities, it becomes possible to address and overcome cultural and institutional resistance. By situating itself within an ERC Advanced Grant CLIFF project, the study aims to provide an evidence-based analysis for aligning current military investments with climate goals without compromising national security.