Policy Briefs
1
Key Messages:
- Addressing climate change requires leaving fossil fuels underground (LFFU)
- Market mechanisms will not autonomously displace fossil fuel
- Investing in renewables will not automatically replace fossil fuel
- Overshoot politics delays LFFU exacerbating impacts
- Net zero politics delays LFFU exacerbating impacts
2
Investing in Renewables Does Not Automatically Replace Fossil Fuels
Key Messages:
- Data shows that renewable energy increases in the energy mix but does not replace fossil fuels (FF)
- For developing countries, the energy addition is inevitable, but does not need to come from FF
- Big banks continue to heavily invest in FF compared to Renewable Energy Sources (RES)
- Investments in RES by FF companies compared to their FF investments are a drop in the ocean
- A focused policy on phasing out fossil fuel is needed
Read Policy Brief 2 »
3
Key Messages:
- Science-based net-zero targets require a rapid fossil fuel phaseout
- Many net-zero targets rely on offsetting emissions instead of phasing out fossil fuel
- Fossil fuel companies are setting net-zero targets which rely on unproven negative emission technologies
- The financial sector continues to finance new fossil fuel projects despite adopting net-zero targets
- National governments are adopting net-zero targets while expanding fossil fuel production
4
Key Messages:
- Climate injustices have multiplied over time
- Climate objective delayed, delaying fossil fuel phase out
- Delay shrinks carbon budget, cannot be easily shared
- Stranded assets not accounted for
- Mitigation focuses on efficiency, reducing opportunities for systemic change
- Adaptation costs paid mostly by victims
- Symptomatic approach: Driving systemic factors ignored
5
Key Messages:
- Without climate justice, the climate problem cannot be solved
- Justice conceptualized includes transformative, recognition and epistemic justice; interspecies, intergenerational and intragenerational justice; procedural; and substantive justice
- Justice operationalized includes just ends (just boundaries and foundations) and just means (just transformation)
6
Key Messages:
- What is ‘dangerous’ climate change depends on who decides what it is and for whom.
- Science has for long promoted 2ºC as a safe target.
- Decisions on the long-term objectives of the climate regime have been postponed politically till 2015 and 1.5ºC was introduced by small island states.
- New research sees 1.5ºC as reducing considering harm and triggering four tipping points.
- But even at 1ºC, there is huge damage to species and ecosystems.
- Even at 1ºC, there is huge damage to humans and nations.
7
A Just World on a Safe Planet: Earth System Thresholds, Foundations and Transformations
Key Messages:
- Science-based net-zero targets require a rapid fossil fuel phaseout
- Many net-zero targets rely on offsetting emissions instead of phasing out fossil fuel
- Fossil fuel companies are setting net-zero targets which rely on unproven negative emission technologies
- The financial sector continues to finance new fossil fuel projects despite adopting net-zero targets
- National governments are adopting net-zero targets while expanding fossil fuel production
Read Policy Brief 7 »
8
Key Messages:
- Climate governance history reveals cumulative North-South injustices
- North-South dichotomy is flexible and relational: Global North vs. Global South, Norths within the South, and Souths within the North
- Persistent historical inequalities and structural power imbalances shape climate responsibilities, decision-making, climate finance and access to resources
- Policies that account for relational and tripartite North-South can strengthen equity and justice in climate governance.
9
Key Messages:
- Major economies continue to invest in new fossil fuel projects using new frames
- Embedded dependencies “lock-in” fossil fuel
- Smaller, peripheral economies face lock-ins similar to developing countries
- Divestment shifts vested interests and makes the industry less transparent
10
Key Messages:
- Politics has delayed decision-making creating uncertainty
- Politics has emphasized market mechanisms, energy security and competitiveness
- Politics subsidizes fossil fuel, while subsidies for RES mostly go to the rich
- Large actors such as ports and airports are not proactive
- Emissions going down slowly, and are affected by military and AI emissions
11
Key Messages:
- Military use of fossil fuels is substantial
- New NATO norm increases likelihood of doubling emissions
- Climate security and military security (readiness) should be integrated
- Reform funding mechanisms to be a decarbonization multiplier
- Mandate minimum quotas for sustainability investments
- Design fossil fuel exit scenario
- Embed climate security and energy autonomy in defence strategy
12
Key Messages:
- Energy justice/security and right to development influence LFFU
- Potential job losses hamper LFFU; just transition elusive
- Financial dependence & low diversification hampers LFFU
- Corruption and cronyism hampers LFFU
- Debt and dumping challenges LFFU
- Colonialism, Capitalism, Patriarchy hampers LFFU
13
Key Messages:
- Competing energy coalitions are mediated by the state
- Counter-hegemonic coalitions promote counter-narratives
- Policy instruments can potentially LFFU
14
Key Messages:
- Fossil fuel (FF) companies have spread doubt about climate change science
- FF companies have lobbied governments to slow down decisions on a FF phase out
- FF companies promote ‘necessitarianism’ to distract attention from their role in causing climate change
- FF companies are ‘green washing’ their strategies
- FF companies support techno-optimism to enable net zero goals
- FF companies indulge in strategic blame placement to avoid accountability
15
Key Messages:
- Misinformation and disinformation on climate change is growing
- Misinformation impacts the willingness of the public to take action
- Misinformation and disinformation needs to be countered
16
Key Messages:
- Bilateral Investment Treaties (BITs) encourage investments in fossil fuels (FF) by protecting such investments.
- BITs create a favourable investment climate for foreign investors and protect their rights while the state only has obligations (to protect the investment) and no rights.
- Dispute settlement processes under BITs often involve international arbitration which side-lines national courts.
- States may lose control over their resources included in the contracts because of the fear of high costs of arbitration and possible compensation awards.
- BITs can be inconsistent with the host countries development and FF phase out policies that will become more stringent with future climate change goals.
- Most BITs include survival clauses which enables investors to use a terminated BIT to launch international arbitration against a state.
17
Key Messages:
- The Energy Charter Treaty (1994) negotiated mostly by European countries encourages investments in fossil fuel (FF) by protecting such investments.
- ECT protection includes enabling foreign investors to sue states where they operate, in the public and environmental interest, if they decide to phase out FF.
- Such protection includes that even after withdrawing from the ECT, countries are still liable for breaches of the ECT for 20 years.
- Such protection appears to be stronger than other obligations under EU and public international law. Proposed revisions may not address the above problems.
- Inviting developing countries to join the ECT affects them negatively as they have had no influence on the content, not having participated in the negotiations.
- Such invitations are based on unverified claims about the potential impact of the ECT on attracting investments, reducing energy prices, and energy poverty for developing countries.
18
Key Messages:
- Little finance is dedicated to closing down fossil fuel infrastructure
- Climate finance is overtaken by other investments
- Grants declining, loans increasing
- Export credit still supports fossil fuel
- Investors continue to invest in fossil fuel
- Debt exacerbates fossil fuel investment
- Tax evasion and avoidance reduce resources for climate action
19
Climate Finance Morphs From Grants to Loans
Key Messages:
- Climate finance needed in the order of USD 6-8 trillion annually
- Policy commitment at USD 100B rising to USD 300 billion-1.3 trillion annually in 2035
- Finance demands are specified in NDCs and NAPs
- Incoherence in demands reflects incoherence in reporting
- Finance is moving from grants to loans
Read Policy Brief 19 »
20
Key Messages:
- Debt distress is widespread and rising across the Global South
- Sovereign external debt intensifies fossil fuel lock-in in many low- and middle-income countries (LMICs)
- Global financial structures reinforce indebtedness and fossil fuel dependence
- Sovereign external debt servicing drains national budgets and limits diversification
- Debt-driven extraction worsens both inequality and fiscal vulnerability and climate risks
21
Barriers for Aligning Financial Flows With Fossil Fuel Phaseout
Key Messages:
- Financial institutions’ actions to align their investments with climate goals and fossil fuel phaseout are defined more by sectoral private guidelines than by policy interventions.
- Fiduciary requirements do not explicitly enable strong climate action from investors.
- Market-led climate action will not facilitate a transition at a sufficient pace to meet climate goals.
Read Policy Brief 21 »
22
Addressing Drivers: Governing the Commons (GC) (Climate Stability)
Key Messages:
- GC requires multilateral and collective action
- GC requires shared principles: No Significant Harm
- GC requires ideal/transformative, not incremental action
- GC requires state-led and -orchestrated action
- GC requires a new ethical discourse
- GC requires content control and limits to freedom of speech
Read Policy Brief 22 »
23
Addressing Other Drivers
Key Messages:
- LFFU requires addressing structural drivers
- Substitute GDP growth/profits/accumulation by principles of a new economy
- Petroculture/economics/nationalism must be replaced by a new narrative
- Infrastructural, production & consumption patterns need reducing, repurposing, retrofitting and redesigning
- Tax injustice needs to be countered
Read Policy Brief 23 »
24
Allocating Risk/Harm: Corrective Justice
Key Messages:
- International advisory opinions are providing the current interpretation of international law
- Key court cases in Global North are calling on states and companies to increase their climate ambition
- Key court cases in Global South require procedures to be correctly implemented
- Scholarship on litigation is doing the groundwork
- Cases against fossil fuel companies are increasing
- SLAPP litigation is trying to silence advocacy groups
Read Policy Brief 24 »
25
Allocating Risk/Harm: Advice from International Courts
Key messages:
- Climate change is an emergency
- Climate change violates human rights; climate must be stabilized
- CO2 is a pollutant, 1.5℃ is legally binding
- States are responsible for not causing significant harm within the context of enhanced multilateralism
- Continuing to extract fossil fuels could be ‘wrongful’
- Policy needs to be based on science
Read Policy Brief 25 »
26
Allocating Risk/Harm: Strenghten Private Climate Litigation Against Fossil Fuel Corporations
Key Messages:
- Invest in higher access to justice, especially for marginalized communities.
- Increase disclosure regulations with regards to climate-related impacts
- Establish research into formation of societal climate fund
- Expand executives’ liability through piercing the corporate veil or adopting ecocide as the fifth crime under the ICC
- Improve cross-border collaboration
- Adopt constitutional amendments towards green constitutions
Read Policy Brief 26 »
27
Allocating Risk/Harm: Just Transition
Key Messages:
- Just transition needed for labour in fossil fuel sector
- Corporate transition requires engaging stakeholders and peers
- Government transition needed to orchestrate support for labour and restrictions on business
Read Policy Brief 27 »
28
Allocating the Non-Existent Carbon Budget
Key Messages:
- The 1.5°C carbon budget is zero in 2028: there is no space for legacy emissions
- The overshoot budget is limited: development rights and basic needs fulfilment must be prioritized
- Sovereignty is subject to not causing significant harm to others retrospectively and prospectively
Read Policy Brief 28 »
29
Reallocating Responsibilities: Just Finance
Key Messages:
- Achieving 1.5°C, given that 78% of the remaining fossil fuel is in the Global South, requires Global North to help finance the energy transformation
- Financing the energy transformation is cheaper than financing adaptation and loss and damage for the coming centuries
- Retrospective climate harm needs to be converted into financial responsibility
- Debt forgiveness could generate resources for climate mitigation
- Developing countries should be wary of climate loans because of the risk of debt servicing exacerbating fossil dependence
- Tax justice is imperative to help countries finance governing the global commons
- Compensating fossil fuel companies under the bilateral/multilateral investment treaties is rewarding the polluter; it must be stopped
Read Policy Brief 29 »
30
Climate Finance: How To Align Investment Flows With Climate Goals
Key Messages:
- Investors can enhance their climate action through systemic engagement with companies
- Restricting new fossil fuel finance is critical to mitigate expansion of fossil fuel production
- Policy intervention to align financial flows is necessary, but not sufficient for meeting climate goals.
Read Policy Brief 30 »
31
Just Finance: Ending Export Credit Finance for Fossil Fuels
Key Messages:
- G20 governments have used public finance, channelled through ECAs, to provide USD 40 billion annually for the development of fossil fuel projects abroad from 2018-2020.
- Many G20 countries committed to phase out public finance for fossil fuels at COP26 in 2021.
- The commitments made at COP26 have yet to be implemented.
- Delay, open-ended exemptions, and loopholes are being used to allow ongoing financing of fossil fuels, especially gas, which could lock in decades of further fossil fuel use.
- These exceptions and investments in new gas infrastructure and extraction have devastating implications for climate goals
Read Policy Brief 31 »
32
Just Finance: Best Practice in OECD Export Credit for Fossil Fuel Exclusion & The Role of China
Key Messages:
- OECD countries should adopt best practices in Paris Aligned phase out of fossil fuel in export credit consistent with 1.5°C. This implies increasing transparency, excluding fossil fuel finance, enhancing mitigation, enhancing clean energy finance and engagement.
- China, as part of the non-Annex 1 countries, is entitled to leniency with respect to its export credit. However, there is little time left before the 1.5°C window closes. Thus, should China wish to take a lead, it could: reconsider fossil fuel finance abroad, use its ECAs to promote green markets, strengthen inclusive cooperation in the global South; enhance cooperation with the global North; possibly join the Clean Energy Transition Partnership, Export Finance for Future (E3F), and UN Net-Zero Export Credit Agencies Alliance (NZECA).
- China could also consider a range of policy options domestically.
Read Policy Brief 32 »
33
Diaspora Finance: Unlocking an Untapped Potential for the Green Transition
Key Messages:
- Raise awareness among diaspora communities of renewable energy’s benefits for their local communities.
- Support blended finance mechanisms that match diaspora contributions with public and private funds.
- Develop a dedicated financial instrument to channel diaspora resources into climate mitigation and adaptation.
Read Policy Brief 33 »
34
Carbon Countdown: Market Disruption for a True Zero-Emission Future
Key Messages:
- Phase out fossil fuel subsidies
- Investing in renewables does not automatically replace fossil fuels
- Close loopholes in Net Zero policies
- Energy Charter Treaty hinders fossil fuel phase-out
- Exclude new fossil fuel projects
Read Policy Brief 34 »
35
Carbon Removal and Carbon Farming
Key Messages:
- LFFU will not be achieved through carbon credit markets
- To create transparancy, create standardization within EU on carbon credit market
- Establish a multi-stakeholder advisory council within the CRCF experts team
- Address CRCF’s opacity and lack of alignment with external quality standards by requiring regulated EU emitters that are within ETS 2 and CSDD to publish annually on , for example, credit quality grades aligned with ICVCM or CCQI
- Create complete institutional standardization by mandating CRCF registry to link with the EU ETS registry and national mitigation registries tracking credit issuance, retirement and disclosure
- Integrate mandatory social criteria and biodiversity standards within CRCF certification
- Incentivise offset projects and developers with strong social outcomes by applying a value-weighter multiplier if social standards are met through, e.g., community-led restoration
Read Policy Brief 35 »
36
Enhancing the Just Energy Transition Partnerships to Be Effective and Inclusive
For the JETPs to be effective and inclusive:
- IPG countries should disclose financial terms and conditions to host countries from the outset
- IPG countries should increase the amount of grant-based finance for the just transition part and for coal retirement in Indonesia and Viet Nam
- IPG countries should improve the terms of non-concessional loans (e.g. higher concessionality, better debt repayment structures and providing finance in local currencies)
- IPG countries should streamline the number of funding conditions and institutions
- Host countries should define additional localization criteria for de-risking
- Host countries should halt all new fossil fuel investments in exchange for high-quality climate finance
- Host countries should conduct robust modelling prior to defining emission targets
- IPG and host countries need to more actively include and inform affected communities (including in local languages)
- IPG and host countries need to enhance accountability by disclosing project-specific finance flows within a set time frame
- IPG and host countries need to prioritize more community-based small-scale renewable energy
Read Policy Brief 36 »
37
Re-Imagining Cities
Key Messages:
- Cities face multiple barriers to LFFU
- Redirect public money into equity-anchored retrofit finance
- Make retrofitting standard practice
- Embed tenant protection and community governance
- Equitable urban mobility for a fossil free future
- Prioritise integrated, multi-modal and accessible transport systems
- Combine strong political leadership with citizen participation
- New cities need compact sustainable designs
Read Policy Brief 37 »
38
Re-Imagining Transport
Key Messages:
- Minimum needs/human rights must be met for all through fossil free transport
- Cities need redesign to enable public and shared transport
- Trade in fossil fuel needs to decrease implying retrofitting or pensioning related transport
- Fossil fuel transport needs to be phased out
- Ports using fossil fuel needs to be repurposed
- The drivers of trade, transport demand and supply, and inequality need to be addressed
Read Policy Brief 38 »
39
The Role of the Port of Amsterdam in Leaving Fossil Fuels Underground
Key Messages:
- Despite the Port of Amsterdam (PoA)’s efforts to phase out coal by 2030, the PoA – as the world’s leading gasoline port – fails to address Scope 2 and 3 emissions and lacks a concrete deadline for phasing out oil products.
- In phasing out fossil fuels, the port faces a myriad of challenges, including technological hurdles, the lack of cooperation among ports, and global fossil fuel market dependencies.
- With the world shifting to renewable energies, the crucial task for the port will be to find its place in the sustainable fuels market and accelerate sustainability strategies.
Read Policy Brief 39 »
40
Narratives and Counternarratives
Key Messages:
- Narratives should fulfil certain criteria
- Mandates need to account for narratives
- Narratives need to counter anti-LFFU narratives
- Narratives need to make consumers into citizens
- Narratives need to counter disinformation
Read Policy Brief 40 »
41
Avoiding Fossil Fuel Addresses Human and Planetary Health
Key Messages:
- Protecting planetary and human health requires ensuring that we do not cross 1.5℃, noting that 1℃ is the proposed just objective
- In line with the International Tribunal of the Law of the Sea, recognise greenhouse gases as marine pollutants
- Reduce all fossil fuel emissions instead of merely increasing renewables
- Investors must switch away from fossil fuels
- The shift away from fossil fuels must be just and inclusive, ensuring that workers, particularly those in fossil fuel-dependent economies, are not left behind
- Developing countries should prioritise long-term planning to mitigate risks and align financial flows to ensure a just transition, share experiences, and advocate for reforming the international financial architecture to ensure grants over loans
Read Policy Brief 41 »
42
Key Agenda of Change and Success Stories
Key Messages:
- A “whole-of-society” approach is beginning to work
- High-level and top-down leadership is crucial
- Science is providing the evidence for change
- Social movements are building momentum
- Courts are countering legislative and executive paralysis
- Radical action is a strategic asset
- Beware of false success stories
Read Policy Brief 42 »
43
Conference Statement: Leave Fossil Fuels Underground Now!
Key Messages:
- Phase out fossil fuels now
- Without climate justice, LFFU is impossible
- LFFU requires dismantling the power structures and incentives that drive fossil fuel expansion
- Catalysing action to LFFU is underway
- Powerful narratives can support action to LFFU
Read Policy Brief 43 »
Other Communications
Principal Investigator of the CLIFF Project, Prof. dr. Joyeeta Gupta, has co-signed a letter to the Colombian president, in advance of the First Conference on Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels in Santa Marta later next month, calling for Colombia’s withdrawal from ISDS.
About
The CLIFF project was financed by the European Research Council (ERC) Advanced Grant under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme.
Grant agreement: No. 101020082
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+31 20 5254366
J.Gupta@uva.nl
Nieuwe Achtergracht 166, 1018 WS Amsterdam