Augusto Heras
Dr. Augusto Heras Linkedin PhD Graduate Areas of Expertise Climate, Energy, Development Fossil fuel governance Advocating just transitions Contact Dr. Augusto Heras unfortunately does not work with the CLIFF project anymore. Positions PhD Student @ Wageningen University Freelance Journalist @ Libero Pensiero News Collaborative Author @ Open Política Recent Publications Climate change, fossil fuels, and the energy transition in the Global South (PhD Dissertation) A. Heras Limiting global warming to 1.5°C requires leaving fossil fuels underground (LFFU), generating stranded resources and assets, and intensifying long-standing North-South injustices in climate governance. Since the implications for fossil-dependent low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) remain largely overlooked, this thesis asks: what political and institutional dilemmas LMICs face in their energy transitions and how can these be addressed. Using mixed methods and combining institutional analysis, a theory of change for inclusive development, a critical international political economy perspective and comparative case studies of Argentina, Brazil, and Colombia, this thesis compiling five published and in review papers concludes: LFFU in LMICs is a triple transition – energy, productive and just – in which two dilemmas emerge: the cost of action versus the cost of inaction and the feasibility of leapfrogging. Debt, high capital costs and fossil rents intensify these dilemmas toward inaction, leading to energy addition, hedging strategies, and rising stranded-asset exposure. Fossil fuel expansion and carbon lock-in are sustained by a historical bloc linking states, industry, and investors, which mobilises the Right to Development and fossil-fuel narratives to legitimise continued extraction.Counter-hegemonic coalitions can reduce stranded-asset exposure and enable energy leapfrogging by closing the extractive frontier, sequencing productive diversification and just transition policies, reshaping institutions and development imaginaries. Treating LFFU both as a technical challenge and a political project can accelerate qualitative leapfrogging trajectories and reduce the costs of inaction, avoiding the irreversible consequences of climate change. By foregrounding power, justice, narratives, and governance pathways, this thesis advances a political economy perspective on just and inclusive energy transitions in the Global South. A Fair Fossil Fuel Phase-Out Is Feasible (Policy Brief) M.J. Wewerinke – Singh, K. Bagchi, M. Fermeglia, J. Gupta, A. Heras, A.E. Kourula, J.A.P. Lorenzo, P.A. Nollkaemper, F. van der Ploeg, J.C. Slootweg et al. Reconciling the right to develop with leaving fossil fuels underground in the Global South Augusto Heras, Crelis F. Rammelt, Joyeeta Gupta To address climate change, supply-side action and policy are urgently needed for leaving fossil fuels underground. Low- and Middle-Income Countries hold a pivotal role in such a transition due to their significant fossil fuel reserves and their Right to Development. Against this background, this paper asks: What rationales, based on fossil fuel data and the Right to Development, could underpin Global South countries’ engagement in or withdrawal from fossil fuel supply? To unpack their development dilemmas and unravel a set of different arguments for different countries, this paper first develops an inventory of Low- and Middle-Income Countries, drawing from data on reserves, production, and infrastructure, to quantitatively assess their material involvement in fossil fuels and to identify potential cases for impactful and just mitigation action. We also estimate potential carbon emissions from burning all reserves in the included Least Developed Countries. These hypothetical per capita emissions are 10.94 % of those emitted by the richest 0.1 % in 2019. Based on this assessment, we then propose a typology of different Right to Development rationales around fossil fuels. We call for more granular analyses of the Global South in supply-side climate policy, to allow for their autonomous development trajectories. This includes a managed and just phase-out of fossil fuels aligned with the 1.5 ºC target, ensuring that the burden of stranded assets and resources falls on those most capable of bearing it. Climate Injustices Have Multiplied over Time: The Need for Climate System Justice Joyeeta Gupta, Yang Chen, Clara McDonnell, Augusto Heras, Janina Herzog-Hawelka, Frank de Morrée, Opal Morales Asencio This article asks: How have climate injustices accumulated in climate negotiations, and how can a climate system justice approach be developed? It concludes that, first, without a just approach, climate change cannot be addressed. Second, it identifies six cumulative injustices: (a) delay of the long-term climate objective, (b) post-equitable sharing of the ‘carbon budget’, (c) ignoring stranded resources and assets, (d) adopting efficient but inequitable/ineffective mitigation instruments, (e) weak adaptation and loss and damage strategies and (f) a symptomatic not curative approach. This article concludes by calling for climate system justice, arguing that only a just approach enables effective climate policy. Avoiding fossil fuel addresses human and planetary health (Policy Brief) Joyeeta Gupta, Luc van Vliet, Yang Chen, Frank de Morrée, Augusto Heras, Janina Herzog-Hawelka, Clara McDonnell, Moataz Talaat, Opal Morales Asencio This policy brief argues that fossil fuel extraction and combustion strongly affects human (including violence against women) and planetary (including ocean) health (SDG 3, 5, 15). Although fossil fuels have contributed to economic prosperity for some, there is growing evidence that they need to be phased out in a just manner us-ing appropriate means of implementation. This policy brief argues for revitalising the global partnership for sustainable development. Such a partnership can also en-courage a structural change to the global economy to ensure human wellbeing, employment, and prosperity. A. Heras Limiting global warming to 1.5°C requires leaving fossil fuels underground (LFFU), generating stranded resources and assets, and intensifying long-standing North-South injustices in climate governance. Since the implications for fossil-dependent low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) remain largely overlooked, this thesis asks: what political and institutional dilemmas LMICs face in their energy transitions and how can these be addressed. Using mixed methods and combining institutional analysis, a theory of change for inclusive development, a critical international political economy perspective and comparative case studies of Argentina, Brazil, and Colombia, this thesis compiling five published and in review papers concludes: LFFU in LMICs is a triple transition – energy, productive and just – in which two dilemmas emerge: the cost of action versus the cost of inaction and the feasibility of leapfrogging. Debt, high capital costs and fossil rents intensify these dilemmas